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Russia VS Georgia

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doomjunkie	Russia VS Georgia	Lead	[-]
Posts: 244 (08/11/08 15:13:44) Senior Member Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Being off the intardwebz for a week, I missed the start of this war. I have been watching multiple Georgian and Russian local channels. Only one Russian channel is in English. I am getting more propaganda than truth. I compare the French, English, Georgian, and American coverage of the war and all are different reports. I want to know what started the shit storm or who fired the first shot. What the Hell are they fighting about. One thing I do know is that Georgia dropped a cluster-bomb on top of a Russian hospital. I saw damn near live footage of that scene and it was a bad state of affairs. Anyone know what the heck is going on?
chiaspod		#1	[-]
Posts: 312 (08/17/08 09:43:05) Vodka is the black of the alcohol world Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	One thing I do know is that Georgia dropped a cluster-bomb on top of a Russian hospital. I saw damn near live footage of that scene and it was a bad state of affairs. ... you know no such thing. The hospital that was attacked by a cluster bomb was in Gori - a city in South Ossetia. Despite the Russian propoganda, South Ossetia is a province of Georgia. Russia, in effect, fired the first shot in this war. Back in 1991, 1992, after the Soviet Union did its disappearing act, and about 10 minutes after Georgia declared itself independent, two provinces of Georgia immediately started experiencing rebellions - groups who were pro-Communist/pro-Soviet wanted to join Russia. Despite the rebel groups, Georgia had elections and managed to get a democratically elected government in place. For the past 16 years, the rebel groups have been fighting the government, and Russia - sucha peaceful, wise country - has been issuing Russian passports to any residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia who asked. Y'know, 'cause that's a diplomatic thing to do. In early August, Georgia and the rebels agreed to have a cease-fire and meet to discuss possible recourses. On August 7th (I believe - I'd need to check that), there was a break in the cease-fire; both sides pointed fingers at the other, but "fortunately" Russia had troops on the border just waiting to "help" enforce the ceasefire. As soon as the ceasefire was broken, Russia sent in troops to help "calm" things ... y'know, much like they did in Afghanistan.
pseudogoth23		#2	[-]
Posts: 720 (08/17/08 12:18:55) Fatty. :( Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Actually, I believe Gori is OUTSIDE South Ossetia. Kind of a hint that the Russians were doing a bit more than "peacekeeping". If the Russians had restricted themselves to "peacekeeping" (staying in the borders of South Ossetia/Abkhazia and just kicking the Georgians out), they might have gotten away with the "Hey, we're just doing what NATO did in Kosovo! These are indigenous peoples who don't want to be ethnically cleansed and want self-government!" act- to the extent that the West might have conceded this because we're awfully tied down in several other places (thanks, neocons!), plus there's evidence that, yes, the Ossetians and Abkhazians are to the Georgians what the Georgians were to the Russians- not thrilled at being part of their country and wanting a chance to break free. The problem is that instead of limiting themselves to putting their thumbs on the scales in South Ossetia/Abkhazia by kicking Georgian troops out, the Russians decided to invade Georgia outside of those regions, bomb/terrorize civilians, and generally act boorish (asking for Georgia's president to resign and posturing a lot). End result is the rest of the former USSR border states are freaking out figuring "gee, we're next if Putin decides it's time for Russia to own their near abroad again"- so you see Poland and the US instantly concluding a missile defense treaty that had been argued about for some time that puts US troops in Poland, and so on. This is sort of a mess right now. I don't think we quite want to turn this into Czechoslovakia circa 1938, though- for one thing, war with Russia is a check we're not prepared to cash anytime soon.
chiaspod		#3	[-]
Posts: 313 (08/17/08 12:48:47) Vodka is the black of the alcohol world Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Actually, I believe Gori is OUTSIDE South Ossetia. Kind of a hint that the Russians were doing a bit more than "peacekeeping". Yeah, sorry about that - Gori (and its eponymous district) used to be part of the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast during Soviet times; much like people who refer to Peking, Bombay, and Ceylon, I'm guilty of not always updating my geographic references. You're totally right, and ... yeah, that's a bit outside of the area, since Gori's not one of the secessionary provinces. My concern is two-and-a-half-fold: a) Putin's acting an old Soviet premier; the shell game of "hand picking" his successor (and by "hand picking," I obviously mean "using every resource the gov't had to suppress the campaign of Medvedev's opponent"), becoming the prime minister, and continuing to act as a shadow president ... these are old-school Soviet games. a-ii) a rise in nationalism and nostalgia for the old Soviet regime - it's getting creepy and more blatant, to the point that the Olympics team logo looks like an impressionist hammer and sickle b) saber-rattling against the former "near abroad"; it's not just Poland that's suddenly making loud noises, but also the Ukraine. Yeah. While Georgia's not lily-white innocent in terms of their own internal conduct, anything that doomjunkie "read" taht indicates that Georgia's an aggressor here is almost totally wrong. ... and that still doesn't address Russia pulling a shit move like issuing Russian passports to Georgian citizens and then whining that Georgia is mistreating "Russian" citizens. I know how the Soviet Union treated the Oseti, the Alans, the Abkhaz. It's not out of open-armed sympathy that they're playing this game (which I know you know, but ... meet doomjunkie).
doomjunkie		#4	[-]
Posts: 248 (08/17/08 13:30:50) Senior Member Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Thanks for the replies guys. I am learning a bunch from your posts. So what do you predict will happen in the near future around between the 2 fighting sides?
pseudogoth23		#5	[-]
Posts: 721 (08/17/08 14:37:33) Fatty. :( Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	The Russians will stall as much as they can on the withdrawal (we're seeing this now) and will do their damnedest to get South Ossetia/Abkhazia separated from Georgia, plus I would imagine they will aggressively "patrol" their peacekeeping area... plus I would imagine they are going to try and depose the Georgian president by any means possible. The Georgians will get to be an example of what Thucydides wrote about in Greece: The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. Europe will sort of wring their hands and try do something effectual... while realizing that if Russia decides to turn off the natural gas pipes, they're fucked. The US will do what it can... pity that with Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan all demanding attention, we've got a lot on our plate (and realistically, in order to take collective action against Iran, we need the Russians on board, which complicates Georgia a lot). The Baltic states and other Eastern European nations represresenting the "near abroad" will get closer to NATO (possibly not the Ukraine so much- polling indicates they are sort of "eh" on the topic, as there's a substantial pro-Russian element in their society).

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